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Watching and Waiting as the U.S. Energy Landscape Evolves

It’s so hard to be patient, sitting in the wings waiting for things to “get back to normal”. In an article released in March, 2026 entitled “SBIR/STTR Restart Timeline”, the author provided insight into when this might happen for each agency. Amongst these was the Department of Energy (DOE) which was called out as being the “Hardest Agency to Predict” because of the degree of change the Agency is under-going.

With respect to the DOE, small businesses muse about many things. When will the solicitations be released? How will DOE’s project pitch process work?  What topics will be of interest? What will happen to projects that are on hold? Will DOE really have open topics? How will the transfer of the SBIR/STTR programs to the Office of Technology Commercialization work? What is the expectation about interaction with the Federal Labs? To these questions, there are currently no answers….but there are many clues.

The Department of Energy’s priorities have been made abundantly clear by the Trump Administration. Therefore, to provide ourselves and hopefully you with insight, we began exploring the challenges that DOE has been asked to address and which Secretary Wright is implementing. Our assumption is that topics, when they come out will relate to these priority areas. With this in mind, we invite you to take a look at the Energy Insights section that we have just added to Dawnbreaker’s website. Our goal with this addition is to provide small business that we have assisted in the past with useful information about DOE’s priorities; as well as insight into associated Federal Laboratories initiatives, and new opportunities which are announced periodically on DOE’s websites.

We invite you to take a look at the Critical Minerals and Materials section and to spend time exploring the Key Challenges, the Knowledge Hub and upcoming U.S. Conferences. While there, be sure to also take a look at the other Key priority areas which include Oil and Natural Gas, Nuclear Technologies, Fusion, Clean Coal, Grid Reliability and Affordability and Supply Chain Security.

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Oil & Natural Gas

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Fusion Energy

Commercialize nuclear fusion power rapidly and responsibly.
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Clean Coal

Unleash American coal production
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Critical Minerals & Materials

Extract critical minerals from coal ash
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Nuclear

Accelerate the development of next generation nuclear technology
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Supply Chain Security

Secure critical mineral supply chains
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Grid Reliability & Affordability

Maximize affordability and keep power online
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Fusion Energy Overview

Fusion is a potential energy source and occurs when one or more lighter elements combine to form a heavier element, releasing energy in the process. [1] Devices designed to harness this energy are known as fusion reactors. [2]   A future fusion plant could use the heat produced by the fusion reaction to produce steam to drive turbines or generators that produce electricity. [3] For almost a century, scientists around the globe have been looking to recreate and harness the power of fusion energy. [4]  

Tokamak
Source: ITER

There are two commonly pursued technologies to create and control plasma. Magnetic confinement uses strong magnets to contain plasma. A widely used configuration known as a tokamak[5] uses powerful magnets to confine the plasma within a toroidal reaction vessel, with the magnetic fields keeping the plasma away from the walls of the vessel to prevent damage and unintended cooling of the plasma.[6]  

Examples of U.S. companies developing magnetic confinement systems are Commonwealth Fusion Systems, TAE Technologies, Tokamak Energy, Helion Energy, and Thea Energy. Inertial confinement uses high-power lasers or electrical discharges to compress a small capsule of fusion fuel to extreme temperatures and pressures for a short time. This approach is used, for example, in the National Ignition Facility at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. [7] Examples of U.S. companies developing inertial confinement systems are Xcimer Energy, Focused Energy, ZAP Energy, and Shine Technologies. In addition to these methods, several companies such as General Fusion,  are pursuing various other pathways to try to create and control fusion reactions, including a hybrid of both magnetic and inertial confinement approaches. [8]

Various fusion fuels are used to power these pursued pathways. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, once developed, first-generation fusion plants may likely use a combination of abundant deuterium and lithium as fuel. [9] Deuterium, lithium and tritium Deuterium-tritium is a highly studied fusion fuel and a likely basis for the first fusion power plants.[10] Lithium is a critical resource for fusion because of its material properties. Lithium is used to breed tritium, the key fuel for fusion. [11] The rare lithium-6 form of the metal, which makes up only 7.5 per cent of all naturally occurring lithium, is the most efficient for sustaining the fusion process. [12] Li-6 is banned in the U.S. because of the harmful mercury waste it generates. [13] So most fusion power concepts rely on “enriched” lithium, where the Li-6 content has been boosted. [14]

Several companies are investing in efforts aimed at commercializing fusion energy. [15] Many of these companies are startups that have raised over $100 million in the past few years. [16]  The global fusion energy market size is projected to reach $611.8 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 5.56% from 2025 to 2034. [17] 

Current State - Projections of the time to putting Fusion Energy on the Grid

As of October 2025, fusion reactors remain pre-commercial, with no system yet producing net energy. Fusion energy stakeholders provide varying timelines as to when fusion energy will become technically feasible as an energy source for the electrical grid and when it will become commercially viable.  Projections range from 10 years to several decades in the future. [18]   Some companies are claiming that they will achieve commercial fusion energy in the next few years[19] while other stakeholders and experts said fusion energy will take more than 20 years. The Fusion Industry Association reported that many commercial companies predict fusion industry will be commercially viable in the 2030’s time frame. [19] 

Source: The Global Fusion Industry in 2025—Fusion Industry Association

Other stakeholders and experts believe fusion energy might put electricity on the grid in 10 to 20 years, however, significant resources are required to do so.[20] The Figure below illustrates commercialization risks that fusion energy will face on the road to commercial deployment. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, the aspirational timeline as shown is strongly dependent on the level of both public and private investments. [21]

Commercialization risks for fusion

Source. U.S. Department of Energy, Fusion Energy Strategy 2024

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You’ve done a great job with your R&D. You’ve been careful to protect your intellectual property – but those next steps to bring the product to market seem out of reach. There’s too much competition, scale up would be too expensive – so you’ve decided to license-out your intellectual property. The challenge before you is to find the best licensee to bring your baby to market. Let us help you. We will profile organizations that frequently cite your patents and dig deeper to determine their financial health, technology and market synergies, and experience with licensing-in.

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Be wary of big numbers!

You’ve done a great job with your R&D. You’ve been careful to protect your intellectual property – but those next steps to bring the product to market seem out of reach. There’s too much competition, scale up would be too expensive – so you’ve decided to license-out your intellectual property. The challenge before you is to find the best licensee to bring your baby to market. Let us help you. We will profile organizations that frequently cite your patents and dig deeper to determine their financial health, technology and market synergies, and experience with licensing-in.

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Your customers know your competitors! Do you?

Maybe you believe that you don’t have any competition, but your customers know better! Their needs are being addressed now – perhaps not as well, but if there is a need, someone is providing a solution. Learn about the competition and be prepared to differentiate your solution from that of others. Dawnbreaker’s competitor analysis contrasts your competition on specifications, performance and price. Armed with this information we can help you create a compelling value proposition.

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When you need to reach out...

There are times when you need to reach out to others – whether you are looking for potential customers, potential partners, or potential investors. But who should you call…and how do you address your fear of contacting them. The DevNC is a unique market research tool designed to provide you with between 25 and 30 Points of Contact (PoC). With each POC, information is included that provides insight about the person’s role. Depending on their position, other information commonly included relates to their background, articles that they have written, conference presentations and other pertinent information. This type of information enables you to customize your correspondence. Contact information is also included  – typically LinkedIn, email and phone number.

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