Mini-Mag: Issue 2
Mini-Mag: Issue 1
The INNOVATE Act: The Problems with Phase 1A
The Innovate act: The problems with Phase 1A
By Jenny C. Servo, Ph.D.
The Department of Defense has developed numerous ways to modify the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs to rapidly secure solutions for the warfighter. From Commercial Solutions Offerings (CSO) to $50,000 Phase I awards that make a company instantly eligible for a government Phase III, DoD has demonstrated its ability to use both traditional and nontraditional methods to secure technologies that it needs for the warfighter more rapidly.
However, it appears that some small businesses that have benefited from the application of DoD’s tool kit, often become proponents of applying these same methods to all agencies. For example, the Phase 1A concept in the INNOVATE Act bears a striking resemblance to DoD’s Commercial Solutions Offering (CSO). This is an optional approach used by DoD – not a mandated one – which enables companies with an existing commercial solution to make modifications to meet a DoD need.“CSO can be used to acquire innovative commercial items, technologies, or services that directly meet program requirements, whereas BAAs are restricted to basic and applied research.[1]”
The proposed Phase 1A is intended to speed upon the entry of new applicants into the SBIR/STTR programs, by asking them to submit a two-page proposal in response to an “open topic” for which they could receive a $40,000 award. The proposed guidelines for the Phase 1A application includes: (1) Identification of the Problem, (2) Description of the Solution, (3) Impact of the Solution, (4) Differentiation and (5) Commercialization Strategy including both the commercial and government markets. The requirement for an “Open Topic” and the proposed outline suggests that very little is known about how civilian agencies differ from the Department of Defense. Here are a few of the differences:
- Most of the SBIR/STTR topics from civilian agencies ARE focused on basic and applied research.
- Many civilian agencies already have developed their own methods to quickly enable potential applicants to discern if there is a fit between their skills and the agencies needs. The National Science Foundation uses the Project Pitch, the Department of Energy uses the Letter of Intent, and the National Institute of Health uses Aims.
- Civilian agencies already conduct outreach to bring in hundreds of new applicants each year and provide support in proposal preparation through federally funded Phase 0 programs. The Department of Energy has provided the DOE Phase 0 support for more than 10 years, as has the National Institutes of Health through its Applicant Assistance Program. These programs are comprehensive and cost effective.
- Most civilian agencies have funded I-Corps and make this available in various forms in order to assure that small businesses speak with their potential customers.
- Although Government Phase IIIs are theoretically available to all agencies, granting organizations tend not to use this mechanism as their mission is focused on “public good”, as opposed to being focused on a government mission.
The bottom line is that there is no need to substitute effective solutions that agencies have already developed with an approach that will overwhelm their staff and require more taxpayer money. Existing federal Phase 0 programs cost between $5,000 and $7,000 per company, as opposed to $40,000 as proposed by the INNOVATE ACT. It is important to note that the Department of Defense, which accounts for more than half of the available SBIR/STTR funding, has far more staff to manage and implement its programs than smaller agencies with less resources.
The INNOVATE ACT maintains that “Phase 1A funds will bring thousands of new small business concerns committed to commercialization of critical technologies into the SBIR program.” However, there are no data to substantiate this belief, even though the argument is being made that by placing a cap on the number of awards that frequent award winners receive, an increase in first time applicants winning SBIR/STTR awards will increase. However, the Annual SBIR/STTR Reports to Congress, provided by the Small Business Administration do not include any data regarding how many first-time applicants submit SBIR/STTR proposals, how many of these were non-responsive, merited award or received an award. Such data are necessary to substantiate this assumption.
It is therefore suggested that in bill S. 853 “Phase 1A be presented as an option, rather than a mandate and that all agencies be required to use not less than 2.5% of their SBIR budget for either Phase IA or other outreach initiatives aimed at bringing in qualified, first time SBIR/STTR applicants.” Existing Federal Phase 0 programs are funded with “outreach” dollars which would be eliminated by a mandated Phase 1A requirement.
[1] DAU, Commercial Solutions Opening (DFARS 212.70), accessed August 20, 2025
Jenny C. Servo, Ph.D. is the President and Founder of Dawnbreaker, a woman-owned small business located in Rochester, NY which has provided commercialization assistance to SBIR/STTR awardees since 1990.
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Market Snapshot: Plastic Circularity
Written by: Jenny C. Servo,Ph.D. & Erin George, MLS
Who could have imagined that the search for a substitute for ivory used in billiard balls in the 19th century[1] would give rise to an industry whose impact today is already preserved in sedimentary layers of the earths’ fossil record[2]. Dubbed as the “plastics age”, research conducted by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in the Santa Barbara basin off the California coast[3] has demonstrated that since the 1940’s microscopic sediments in the ocean have doubled about every 15 years. The more apparent, visible signs of the pervasive use of plastics today is seen in the “Great Pacific Garbage Patch” – regions of the Pacific ocean. as large as the state of Texas[4], filled with the stifling debris of plastic.
The impact on the environment which most consumers don’t see, could have a profound impact on the food chain. There is growing evidence that microplastics, pieces of plastic less than five millimeters in length, are entering the food chain. “Microplastic exposure to humans is caused by foods of both animal and plant origin, food additives, drinks[5], and plastic food packaging.”[6] There is also evidence that nanoplastics, smaller than 1 micrometer can enter human cells and cause DNA damage[7].
The “take-make-waste” model is no longer acceptable. Taking oil and gas from the earth, turning it into plastic and then throwing it away is having profound and negative impact.[8] Data on what happens to waste varies, but in general, 14% of plastic waste is collected for recycling, 14% is incinerated and/or used for energy recovery, 40% is landfilled and 32% leaks into the oceans.[9] The concept of the circular economy mirrors the sustaining processes in nature. “In a new plastics economy, plastic never becomes waste or pollution.[10]”
Although the concept of a circular economy has gained traction, there are over one hundred definitions of what that means[11]. However, when it comes to plastics, the definition used by plasticmakers.org is clear “Circularity means using plastics… more efficiently by keeping the material in use for as long as possible, getting the most we can from the material during its use, and then recovering it to make new products.[12]”
The market for plastic circularity is growing. According to the American Chemistry Council, it is important however to note that there are differences between durable and non-durable plastics and the end-of-life (EOL) methods each uses for recycling. Durable plastics that are meant to be in use for many years and are used in automotive, building and construction, electronics and medical industries. Non-durable plastics are those intended for single use and packaging. The global market for recycled plastics, according to MarketsandMarkets, was valued at $69.4 billion in 2023 and projected to reach $120 billion by 2030 at a growth rate of 8.1%.[13]
The growing use of recycled plastics by major companies in the automotive, packaging, and electrical and electronics industries is a major driver of growth in the market, along with the policies and initiatives that are being implemented to promote the recycling of plastics and their reuse. Some of the key players in the U.S. market include MBA Polymers, Plastipak Holdings, Republic Services, and Stericycle.[14]
In a similar vein, MarketsandMarkets also reports on the global post-consumer recycled plastics market in 2024 was valued at $71.44 billion and projected to grow to $106.97 billion by 2029 at an 8.4% CAGR. The market is defined as those plastics that are recycled and collected from consumers such as bottles, films, and foams. Circular economy programs are promoting resource utilization and waste management which is a main driving factor in the growth of this market.[15]
[1] Arthur Neves, “First successful substitutes for ivory billiard balls were made with celluloid reinforced with ground cattle bone,” Phys.org, November 24, 2023
[2] Damian Carrington, “After bronze and iron, welcome to the plastics age, say scientists,” The Guardian, September 4, 2019
[3] Jennifer A. Brandon et al, “Multidecadal increase in plastic particles in coastal ocean sediments,” Science Advances, September 4, 2019
[4] National Geographic, “Great Pacific Garbage Patch” Accessed January 30, 2025
[5] Zia Sherrell, “Concerned about microplastics in tea bags? Here’s what researchers say you should know,” Yahoo/Life, January 30, 2025
[6] Abdullah al Momun et al, “Microplastics in human food chains: Food becoming a threat to human safety,” Elsevier, Volume 858, Part 1, February 2023
[7] Stephanie Duchen, “Microplastics everywhere,” Harvard Medicine, Spring 2023
[8] Ellen McArthur Foundation, “Plastics and the circular economy – deep dive,” September 15, 2019
[9] World Economic Forum, Ellen McArthur Foundation and McKinsey and Company, “The New Plastics Economy: Rethinking the future of plastics, “2016
[10] Ellen McArthur Foundation, “Plastics and the circular economy – deep dive,” September 15, 2019
[11] Julian Kircherr et al, “Conceptualizing the circular economy: An analysis of 114 definitions,” Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Volume 127, December 2017
[12] Plasticmakers.org, “ What is circularity?” Accessed January 31, 2025
[13] “Recycled Plastics Market,” MarketsandMarkets, April 2023
[14] “Recycled Plastics Market,” MarketsandMarkets, April 2023
[15] “Post-Consumer Recycled Plastics Market,” MarketsandMarkets, October 2024
Market Snapshot: Precision Agriculture
Market Snapshot: Precision Agriculture
Agriculture, in its most general sense, is the science and art of cultivating plants and livestock, and is credited with shifting civilization from hunter gatherers to permanent settlements. Today, the agricultural landscape is increasingly complex as society looks for new, more efficient, and environmentally sound ways to address the water-food-energy nexus. The USDA reports that within agriculture, the greatest technology push has been in precision agriculture (also known as site-specific management or smart agriculture) where sensing, information technologies, and mechanical systems enable crop and livestock management.
Major factors contributing to the growth of the smart agriculture market include the increasing adoption of advanced technologies in various agriculture applications such as precision farming, smart green house, livestock monitoring, and fish farm monitoring. Changing weather patterns due to increasing global warming have impelled the adoption of advanced farming technologies to enhance farm productivity and crop yield. Farmers or growers across the globe are increasingly adopting advanced farming devices and equipment such as steering and guidance, sensors, yield monitors, display devices, and farm management software. MarketsandMarkets reports that the global precision farming market is forecast to grow from $9.7 billion in 2023 to $21.9 billion by 2031 growing at a CAGR of 10.7% from 2023 to 2031.
While there are many factors driving growth in this space, the high cost of technologies, and limited exposure among farmers who would utilize them is seen as restraining the market. Furthermore, smart agriculture requires high initial investment, efficient farming tools, and skilled and knowledgeable farmers or growers. The USDA notes that despite the push toward integrating smart or precision techniques, acceptance by the agricultural community has been hesitant and weak, although most producers admit they will have to adopt these technologies eventually. Specific and recent trends in this area are addressed in the 2023 paper from USDA titled, Precision Agriculture in the Digital Era: Recent Adoption on U.S. Farms.
Key players in the precision farming market include Deere & Company (John Deere) (U.S.), Trimble Inc. (U.S.), AGCO Corporation (U.S.), AgJunction LLC (U.S.), Raven Industries, Inc. (U.S.), AG Leader Technology (US), Teejet Technologies (U.S.), Topcon (U.S.), Taranis (Israel), AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc (U.S.), ec2ce (Spain), Descartes Labs, Inc. (U.S.), Granular Inc. (U.S.), Hexagon AB (Brazil), Climate LLC (U.S.), and CropX Inc. (Israel). The leading players in this market have leveraged merger & acquisition, partnership, collaboration, and product launch strategies to grow in the global precision farming market.
The International Conference for On-Farm Precision Experimentation will be taking place in 2024 along with several other events happening in 2023 and 2024.
Market Snapshot: Biomass & Biofuels
Biomass is unique in that it can be converted directly into liquid fuels, called biofuels to help meet transportation fuel needs. The two most common types of biofuels in use today are ethanol and biodiesel, these are also known as “drop-in” fuels, meaning they can serve as petroleum substitutes in existing refineries, tanks, pipelines, pumps, vehicles, and smaller engines.
While almost two-thirds of biofuel demand growth will occur in emerging economies, primarily India, Brazil and Indonesia biofuel demand is forecast to rise by 6% or 5,700 million liters between 2022 and 2024 in advanced economies with the majority of the increase happening in the United States and Europe. Biomass According to BCC Research, the global liquid biofuels market should reach $153.8 billion by 2024 from $136.2 billion in 2019 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.2% for the forecast period of 2019 to 2024. The following sections break this broader market down into the markets for ethanol and biodiesel.
Ethanol is an alcohol most commonly made by fermenting any biomass high in carbohydrates through a process similar to beer brewing, but it can also be produced by a process called gasification, which uses high temperatures and a low-oxygen environment to convert biomass into synthesis gas, a mixture of hydrogen and carbon monoxide. The resulting synthesis gas (syngas) can then be chemically converted into ethanol and other fuels. Typically, ethanol is used as a blending agent with gasoline to increase octane and cut down carbon monoxide and other smog-causing emissions. MarketsandMarkets reports that the global bioethanol market is projected to grow from $33.7 billion in 2020 to $64.8 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 14.0%, from 2020 to 2025. Demand for bioethanol is driven by the mandatory use of bioethanol fuel blends in many countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increase the fuel efficiency of the vehicles.
In terms of the different fuel blends, the E10 segment is projected to be the largest market for bioethanol given that Europe countries and across other regions have mandated the use E10 fuel blends in vehicles to lower the GHGs emission rate. Additionally, a small percentage of bioethanol can be mixed with the pure gasoline to prepare bioethanol blends, which burn more efficiently and produce zero carbon emission. As a result, the use of bioethanol fuel blends is mandated in many countries around the world. Based on these factors, transportation is projected to be the largest end-use segment of the bioethanol market in terms of value and volume.
Biodiesel, the other biofuel, is made by combining alcohol with vegetable oil, animal fat, or recycled cooking grease, and can be used as an additive to reduce vehicle emissions or in its pure form as a renewable alternative fuel for diesel engines. Although the pace of research interest had slowed, research into the production of liquid transportation fuels from microscopic algae, or microalgae, is on the upswing at NREL. MarketsandMarkets reports that the biorefinery market size is estimated to be $210.3 billion by 2027 up from $141.8 billion in 2022 growing at a CAGR of 8.2% during the forecast period.
Oil crops such as rapeseed, palm, or soybean are the largest source of biodiesel, which makes it a sustainable alternative compared to conventional diesel. Furthermore, biodiesel meets both the biomass-based diesel and overall advanced biofuel requirement of the Renewable Fuel Standard – it also meets specifications created by the American Society of Testing and Materials (ASTM) for legal diesel motor fuel (ASTM D975) and the definition for biodiesel itself (ASTM D6751). Pure biodiesel is referred as B100 (100% biodiesel) but is rarely used given that existing diesel engines may not be suitable for pure biodiesel. Therefore, just like with ethanol, blends are used that have a certain proportion of biodiesel mixed with fossil diesel. Most of the current diesel engines are capable of handling biodiesel blended fuels. – the most common blends currently in use are B5 (up to 5% biodiesel) and B20 (6% to 20% biodiesel).
In June 2023 the USDA announced plans to invest up to $500 million from the Inflation Reduction Act to increase the availability of domestic biofuels and give Americans additional cleaner fuel options at the pump. Also in June of 2023 the EPA announced a final rule to establish biofuel volume requirements and associated percentage standards for cellulosic biofuel, biomass-based diesel (BBD), advanced biofuel, and total renewable fuel for 2023–2025. DOE has also announced several sources of funding for biofuels in 2023.
Market Snapshot: Wildfire Protection
From air quality alerts to the loss of natural habitats and homes, the threat and impact of wildfires has become increasingly concerning in many parts of the United States. Approximately 85% of wildfires in the United States are caused by humans, whether it is from unattended campfires, arson, or equipment malfunctions – these events are costly and dangerous. Since 2000 an annual average of 70,025 wildfires have burned an annual average of 7.0 million acres, which is more than double the average annual acreage burned in the 1990s.
In 2022, 52% of the nationwide acreage burned by wildfires was on federal lands for which the federal government is responsible. The U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (FS) carries out wildfire management and response across the National Forest System (NFS), and the Department of the Interior (DOI) manages wildfire response for national parks, wildlife refuges and preserves, other public lands, and reservations. As of June 1, 2023, approximately 18,300 wildfires have impacted over 511,000 acres within the U.S. this year.
To address the wildfire crisis the Forest Service launched a comprehensive 10-year strategy in January 2022 focused on the communities most likely to be immediately impacted. The strategy, called “Confronting the Wildfire Crisis: A Strategy for Protecting Communities and Improving Resilience in America’s Forests,” combines congressional funding with scientific research and planning to create a national effort designed to increase the scale and pace of forest health treatments over the next decade. The Forest Service plans to work with states, Tribes and other partners to addresses wildfire risks to critical infrastructure, protect communities, and make forests more resilient through this strategy.
While wildfires are not the only fire-related threat, Grandview Research reports that the global fire protection system market size was valued at $77.88 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% from 2023 to 2030 – this market is not limited to wildfire, protection and includes myriad sources and systems. With a focus on wildfire prevention and management, the Institute for Defense & Government Advancement (IDGA) published a report covering spending and technology trends in this area. According to IDGA the wildfire prevention and management industry is pivoting from procurement to leasing of helicopters, aircraft and ground vehicles, to leasing with the Forest Service expected to spend $2.4 billion on leasing helicopters for wildfire purposes alone. Additionally, digital technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL) and robotics are playing a key role in the early detection of wildfires.
In March 2023 the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Forest Service announced an investment of $197 million in 100 project proposals benefiting 22 states and seven tribes, as part of the Community Wildfire Defense Grant program, which is funded by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. Additionally, the Forest Service and other federal, tribal, state, and local partners developed and are implementing a National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy that has three key components: Resilient Landscapes, Fire Adapted Communities, and Safe and Effective Wildfire Response. Other sources of potential funding for innovators includes the USDA Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) solicitations for qualified businesses.
To learn more about this area and more, several upcoming conferences and events may offer opportunities to interact with others working in this area, and discover more about the wildfire and wildland prevention space. The 2024 NFPA Conference & Expo® will be held in Orlando, Florida next June, and the International Association of Fire Chiefs is hosting several events in 2024.
Market Snapshot: Hypersonic Weapons
Operating in extreme environments presents many technical challenges. When these environments include the demands of hypersonic flight in the upper atmosphere, the challenges are even greater. The Congressional Research Service reports that the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) is pursuing two types of hypersonic weapons technologies: boost-glide systems that place a maneuverable glide vehicle atop a ballistic missile or rocket booster, and cruise missiles that would use high-speed, air-breathing engines to travel to hypersonic speeds.
A leading difference between missiles armed with hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) and missiles armed with ballistic reentry vehicles is their ability to maneuver and change course after they are released from their rocket boosters. Furthermore, hypersonic vehicles operating in the upper atmosphere are subject to extreme speeds, these may exceed Mach 5, which is five times the speed of sound. These vehicles may also experience temperatures of over 1,000 degrees Celsius, oxidation from the atmosphere and tremendous aerodynamic shear loads. In addition to materials and coatings able to withstand these extreme environments, these platforms will necessitate flight control systems that are able to make rapid adjustments in response to the surrounding and rapidly changing flight conditions.
Despite these challenges, analysts report that the hypersonic missile market is expected to be valued at $130.50 million by 2028 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2% during the forecast period (2023-2028). Deloitte notes that in the United States, annual unclassified defense spending requests for hypersonic technology have grown at a 26% CAGR since 2014 and already total more than $2.6 billion. This annual domestic spending is expected to grow to $5 billion by 2025 while the international hypersonic market was predicted to grow at a CAGR of 7.23% between 2018 and 2022. Furthermore, the hypersonic market has received more than $328 million in venture capital investment since 2015.
The development of hypersonic platforms and enabling technologies is being carried out by groups including prime contractors, government and universities, and small businesses. The leading prime contractors appear to be Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. Raytheon’s Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept (HACM) leverages Northrop Grumman scramjet propulsion system with the team reportedly on schedule to deliver a system to the Air Force, which has said it plans for the missile to be operational by fiscal year 2027. Lockheed Martin is partnering with the U.S. Navy to integrate hypersonic strike capability onto surface ships with the Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) weapon system that will be integrated onto ZUMWALT-class guided missile destroyers (DDGs). The CPS is a hypersonic boost-glide weapon system that enables long range missile flight at speeds greater than Mach 5, with high survivability. Additionally, the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is developing systems to counter hypersonic missiles with its Glide Phase Interceptor, which is a missile designed to shoot down a hypersonic weapon in the middle (or glide phase) of its flight.
In terms of research and development activities for enabling capabilities, researchers at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) are developing coatings that can stand up to the extreme environments of hypersonic flight in the upper atmosphere. The University of Texas at San Antonio is working on Pressure-Sensitive Paint Measurements of a Hypersonic Vehicle in support of NASA’s ULI Full Airframe System Technology (FAST), and the University of Virginia is also working on advanced hypersonic materials. To learn more about research and innovation in hypersonics there are several conferences happening in 2023 and 2024 – the 5th Annual Hypersonic Weapons Summit takes place in September and 3rd National Summit on Hypersonic Weapons Systems is happening in April 2024.
Market Snapshot: Digital Twins
As technology increases in complexity, companies need a way to test a product before it exists in the real world. A digital twin is a virtual representation of a real-world object or process, used to simulate how something will function in the real world—a digital prototype. It’s a computer program that replicates the performance of an equipment, system, person, or process in real-time. However, unlike a simulation, a digital twin is a virtual environment designed around a two-way flow of information. The output of which can be significantly improved with the use of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and big data.
According to MarketsandMarkets, the global digital twin market is projected to reach $73.5 billion by 2027, up from $4.5 billion in 2021, which is a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 60.6%. The North American region is projected to lead the market as most of the digital twin providers are located in that region. Industries that benefit from this technology include aerospace, automotive, and biomedical among others. It is also useful in military, aeronautical, and maritime applications. Key players include General Electric, Microsoft, Amazon, and IBM. American aerospace companies, like Lockheed Martin and Boeing, also heavily invest in the technology for their R&D.
Major companies and research institutes, as well as start-ups, are getting involved in digital twin technology for various applications. Recently, researchers at Harvard and NTT Research announced a three-year joint effort to advance cardiac care using a cardiovascular bio digital twin model. Other researchers are working to create a digital twin of the immune system. There are also some environmental applications underway. Lockheed Martin and NVIDIA will build an AI-driven Earth Observations Digital Twin for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In Sweden, ClimateView has released an upgrade to its ClimateOS, which is essentially a digital twin for a city. The start-up’s SaaS platform will help planners effectively model efforts towards city decarbonization as countries transition to a net zero future.
Michael Grieves will speak at the IOT Solutions World Congress in early 2023. Grieves is generally recognized as the creator of the digital twin concept. Other events in 2023 include the Digital Twin Consortium’s free public forum, New York Build Expo’s event in March, and a conference for Oil & Gas Operations at the end of the year.
Market Snapshot: Autonomous & Semi-Autonomous Vehicles
While we might not be the ones physically driving our cars in the future, rapid advancements in enabling technologies are already driving the automotive industry towards autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicle systems. For example, radar, vision and lidar sensors; the expanding capacity and capability of microcontrollers; faster-responding actuators and controllers; and the promise of machine learning via complex, artificial-intelligence driven software are all moving driverless vehicles ahead. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) reports that the continuing goal of automotive technology is to deliver increasing safety benefits and Automated Driving Systems (ADS) where fully automated cars and trucks will drive us, instead of us driving them. Enabling technologies have been incrementally introduced and accepted ranging from cruise control to lane assist technology.
According to MarketsandMarkets, in terms of volume, the number of semiautonomous cars was estimated to be 20.3 million units in 2021 and is expected to reach 62.4 million units by 2030, at a CAGR of 13.3%. Additionally, there are approximately 1,400 self-driving cars in the U.S. – these differ from semiautonomous that include only one or more autonomous features such as RADAR, LIDAR, cameras or ultrasonic sensors. When quantified from a revenue perspective, Allied Market Research reports that global autonomous vehicle market size is forecast to be valued at $76.13 billion in 2020, and is projected to reach $2,161.79 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 40.1% from 2021 to 2030.
While sensors play many roles in the automotive market, autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles are a driving force in their use. These vehicles combine sensors and software to control, navigate, and drive the vehicle, and use LiDAR and RADAR sensors for its operation. The majority of self-driving systems create and maintain an internal map of their surroundings, based on a wide array of sensors. BCC Research reports that the global market for automotive sensors should grow from $25.9 billion in 2020 to $78.9 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 13.4% from 2020 to 2025.
Regionally speaking, by 2030, Asia Pacific is estimated to account for the largest market share of the semi-autonomous vehicles market, followed by Europe and North America. With respect to the North American region, semi-autonomous vehicles volumes have increases in recent years, with OEMs catering not only to the domestic demand but also to the overseas demand. Moreover, in 2025 the region is likely to lead the autonomous vehicles market in terms of volume followed by Europe and Asia Pacific, as key technology innovators such as Google, Microsoft, and Delphi automotive are significantly investing in and testing the technology to commercialize the same.
However, barriers in this market include the lack of infrastructure to support autonomous cars in developing nations, concerns regarding cyber security and safety of the personal data of the users, and consumers’ hesitation to accept fully autonomous cars are some of the restraints that might hinder the growth of autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles. Frost & Sullivan reports that while technology development and the lack of a robust regulatory framework are the greatest obstacles in this market today, the need to understand consumer demand and the use of data for generating revenues will be the key challenge to address for OEMs in the future. To achieve this, analysts believe that OEMs will need to focus on developing flexible, autonomous platforms capable of providing multiple vehicle types for specific use cases to be successful in the future.
To address these future needs several groups have put together roadmaps, in 2021 the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) developed the Automated Vehicles Comprehensive Plan to advance the Department’s work to prioritize safety while preparing for the future of transportation following the 2020 publication of the USDOT and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Ensuring American Leadership in Automated Vehicle Technologies: Automated Vehicles 4.0 (AV 4.0). Energy use and savings is also a key factor in any discussion of autonomous vehicles, as such Sandia National Laboratory formed a working group of academic, government and commercial partners, including engineers from the University of Michigan, Carnegie Mellon University, Arm, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Intel Corp. and the U.S. Council for Automotive Research. The group identified four areas seen as critical to energy-efficient computing in automated vehicles, including computer chips, sensors, system architecture, and algorithms, all of which need to be considered when trying to improve computational energy efficiency. The group’s The Energy Efficient Computing R&D Roadmap Outline for Automated Vehicles identifies areas of R&D necessary to attain the high computational performance with low power consumption that will be required to achieve automated driving in retail vehicles.
